Loudoun County Housing Update 2011 05

LDN EH Analysis 2011 05

Year-To-Date Sales Lowest in Six Years                                                                                                        

June 8, 2011

Contact:  Rosemary deButts, Realtor and MIRM

540/338-2212; rosemary@atokaproperties.com

For immediate release

(Purcellville, VA) – Through May 31, 2011, existing home sales in Loudoun County totaled 1,712 units thereby registering the lowest year-to-date total since at least 2006.  The graph below illustrates monthly sales totals from January through May for the last six years.  Before 2011, 2008 had the worst record with only 1,960 sales during the period.  Unfortunately, the total sales so far in 2011 fall 13 percent below the previous low point in 2008.

  • January-May 2011 vs. January-May 2006 = -25 percent
  • January-May 2011 vs. January-May 2007 = -25 percent
  • January-May 2011 vs. January-May 2008 = -13 percent
  • January-May 2011 vs. January-May 2009 = -11 percent
  • January-May 2011 vs. January-May 2010 = -14 percent

January to May Sales:  2006 – 2011

Preliminary sales totals for May in Loudoun fell 3 percent to 400 units from the revised 411 units in April.  Last year at this time, 515 units sold across the county.  Sales in Eastern Loudoun accounted for 62 percent (249 units) of the total; Leesburg sales represented 27 percent (107 units) of the total; and Western Loudoun generated the remaining 11 percent (44 units).

Of the 1,712 units sold in 2011 to date, the largest share was priced between $200,000 and $399,999 (45 percent).  During May however, eight homes priced above $1,000,000 were sold – the highest total in this price category since July 2010.

While sales were disappointing, the median sales price continued its upward trek, posting the fourth consecutive monthly increase.  The median was $380,000 in May, up 3 percent from April and 4 percent from last May.  Both Leesburg and Western Loudoun posted median sales prices ($400,000 and $435,000 respectively) that represented increases compared to April and last May.  Eastern Loudoun had a month-over-month increase in its median to $355,000 but it fell below the median last May of $365,000.  Sold prices must be tempered by seller subsidies; the 2011 average seller subsidy is $3,787, down from the 2010 average of $3,814 and $4,584, the 2009 average subsidy.

For the fourth consecutive month the share of distressed sales (short sales and foreclosures) declined in Loudoun County to reach the lowest point in two years.  There were 75 short sales and 34 foreclosures among the 400 sales in May (27.3 percent).  Compare that to 28.2 percent in April and 27.6 percent last May.  The share of distressed sales seems to fluctuate in Leesburg and Western Loudoun but in the historically troubled Eastern Loudoun portion of the county, the share has declined steadily over the last four consecutive months from 44.8 percent in January to 26.5 percent in May.

Another positive sign, the days on market indicator tumbled 20 percent from April (72 days) to May (58 days).  This was the third consecutive monthly decline.  However, every month this year has had a higher average than in the corresponding month in 2010.  The 2010 average
from January to May was 53 days; so far in 2011 the average is 73 days.

The average close price for detached homes in May was $539,150, the highest average since July 2010.  Townhouse prices averaged $302,180 and condominium prices averaged $169,573 during May.  The 2011 averages are flat for detached and attached product types (roughly $515,000 and $300,000 each) but condominium prices have declined from $182,000 in 2010 to $172,000 in 2011 (-6 percent).

If the month’s supply of inventory were between four and five months, the market would be in equilibrium (there would be enough supply to satisfy demand).  However, with only 1,504 active listings (as of June 7th), the supply is only 3.8 months.  This is an especially dire situation in
Eastern Loudoun where the inventory was only 2.8 months in May and only 3.0 months all year.  The supply equaled 3.7 months in Leesburg during May but in Western Loudoun, there was a nine-month supply of listings on the market.

Over the last six months of 2010, the close price to original list price ratio hovered at around 95 percent.  During the first quarter of 2011, the ratio plummeted.  For the last two months though, the ratio has again exceeded 95 percent in Loudoun.  In May, the ratio was 95.7
percent, the highest ratio since October 2010.

Purcellville based real estate consultant Rosemary deButts summarized, “My 2011 sales projections will have to be scaled back considerably.  The peak in monthly sales typically occurs in June every year but June 2011 sales would have to exceed 780 units to catch up to the 2008-2009 pace and 865 units to catch the 2010 pace.  The highest monthly sales total since 2006 occurred in June 2008 with 599 units.  Therefore, it is unlikely 2011 will recover its early losses by year end.”###


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