Western Loudoun County Analysis 2011 05

Western Loudoun Median Prices Highest Since 2007

The May median sales price in the Western Loudoun area (consisting of Middleburg, Purcellville, Round Hill, Hamilton, Lovettsville and Waterford) increased 5 percent to $435,000 from the revised $414,000 in April.  At this time last year, the median was only $346,916 (+25 percent).  Plus, at $414,000, the year-to-date median reflects the highest annual median since 2007.

Preliminary results indicate that a total of 44 homes were sold in Western Loudoun during May.  That represented a 2 increase over the revised April total of 43 units and a 17 percent decline from last May when the housing market was artificially stimulated by the First Time Buyer’s Credit program.  The graph below illustrates that sales are following normal cyclical patterns, albeit with slight variations from month to month in 2011.  It also shows that May 2011 sales exceeded those in May 2009 but couldn’t reach the May 2010 level.  In is interesting that the January to May total sales in 2011 (196 units) outpaced the same period in 2009 (164 units, +20 percent) and almost caught 2010 (198 units, -1 percent) regardless of the Credit. This is unprecedented in Loudoun County and the metropolitan Washington, DC markets; Loudoun County posted its lowest year-to-date total sales in the first five months of 2011 compared to the same period in every year since 2006 (at least).

Western Loudoun Existing Home
Sales:  2009, 2010 and YTD 2011

The following tables summarize sales and median sales price activity in Western Loudoun during May 2011 compared to the previous month (MOM) as well as the corresponding month in 2010 (MOY) by area.  Sales in Purcellville again  topped the list this month with 21 units while there were only three sales in Lovettsville and Waterford.  The median sales prices can vary widely by area and by month; the median in Waterford was $775,000 in May but only $252,500 in April.  Compare that to the median in Middleburg of $320,000, up from $305,000 in April.

Year-to-date, 43 percent of the sales in Western Loudoun were priced between $200,000 and $399,000.  In all of 2010, 37 percent of sales were similarly priced.

As is typical, homes in Western Loudoun are on the market longer than those in other areas of the county.  For example, the average days on market in Western Loudoun during May 2011 amounted to 156 days, up from a revised 124 days in April and only 86 days last May. For the sake of comparison, in Eastern Loudoun, homes sold in 39 days on average in May while the average was 61 days in Leesburg.  Since January 2010, the lowest average in Western Loudoun occurred last July (60 days).  Like sales totals, the days on market indicator varies significantly by individual market.  In Hamilton, the average was 74 days in May but it was 508 days in Waterford.

The average close price to original list price ratio may reflect two things: sellers’ ability to accurately price their homes to match market conditions and/or their willingness to negotiate price.  The ratio declined in May to 91.4 percent from 93.5 percent in April.  Western Loudoun normally has the lowest close price to original list price ratio; it was 96.8 percent in Eastern Loudoun and 95.5 percent in Leesburg last month.  Here in the west, the lowest ratio occurred in Waterford (82 percent) and the highest was found in Hamilton (98 percent).

In May, four townhouses sold at an average price of $254,975 down from $336,667 in April.  The average price for the 40 detached homes sold last month was $509,126, also down from $561,540. Condominiums are not a factor in Western Loudoun.

The share of short sales and foreclosures (21 percent distressed sales) in May was an uptick from April (18 percent). However, this time last year, the share of distressed sales was 35.8 percent.   There have been no distressed sales in Middleburg so far this year and only one short sale in Waterford.  Compare that to the 35 percent of year-to-date sales in Lovettsville that were distressed (ten of twenty-eight).

The month’s supply of inventory is also considerably higher in Western Loudoun than elsewhere in the county.  As of June 7th, there was a 9 month’s supply of available inventory in Western Loudoun.  Compare that to 2.8 months in Eastern Loudoun and 3.7 months in Leesburg.  Lovettsville had the highest available inventory at 21 months and Purcellville had the lowest at 6.2 months.

Spotlight on Middleburg

There is an interesting phenomenon brewing in Western Loudoun: none of the 16 year-to-date sales in Middleburg have exceeded the $1,000,000 close price barrier.  In fact, only one Middleburg property has sold at a price between $800,000 and $999,999 so far this year. The
median sold price was only $320,000 in May and it’s only $530,000 for the entire year. What else is happening in Middleburg?  The average days on market in May was 473 days (2 of the 4 sales exceeded 2 years, one was on the market almost one year and 1 sold in 45 days).  And, based on active listings, there is a 17 month supply of available inventory in Middleburg.

Even with Middleburg’s strange results, Western Loudoun’s housing market is doing better than the county as a whole and even the larger region.  As far as sales volume is concerned, 2011 is holding its ground compared to prior years.  The median sales price saw a significant increase in May, reaching the highest point since August 2010 and the overall downward trend in the share of distressed homes in recent months is also welcome news indeed.

Rosemary deButts, Realtor, has lived in Purcellville for almost twenty years and is associated with Atoka Properties, currently located near Bloom.  She has the Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource certification and is a Member, Institute of Residential Marketing.  Rosemary earned her degree in Economics from Randolph-Macon Woman’s College and her MBA from Old Dominion University.  She and her husband, Jimmy (a lifelong resident of Western Loudoun), have seven children, six of whom are Loudoun Valley High School alums.  For more
information on the Western Loudoun housing market and guidance in buying or selling a home, contact Rosemary today (
rosemary@atokaproperties.com; 540-454-6792; http://www.housinganalyst.net).                        


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