Western Loudoun County Analysis: 2011 06Posted: July 11, 2011
According to the Metropolitan Regional Information Service (MRIS) and as of June 30, 2011, the year-to-date preliminary existing home sales (257 units) in the Western Loudoun area (consisting of Middleburg, Purcellville, Round Hill, Hamilton, Lovettsville and Waterford) exceeded the year-to-date total at this time in 2010 by four units and by 43 units over 2009. The highest monthly sales are typically recorded in June in this highly cyclical industry and June did not disappoint in Western Loudoun. 59 homes closed during June in Western Loudoun, up from a revised 46 in May and 57 during June 2010. This was the highest monthly total since at least January 2009. For the sake of comparison, the year-to-date sales totals in all of Loudoun County are still the lowest in at least six years.
The table below lists June sales by area. Sales in Round Hill outpaced Purcellville for the first time since March of 2009, doubling the number of sales there during May. Lovettsville posted a huge monthly gain, jumping from 3 sales in May to 10 in June.
As shown above, the June median sales price in the Western Loudoun area increased 1 percent to $440,000 from $435,000 in May. At this time last year, the median was only $415,000 (+6 percent). June’s increase boosted the year-to-date median to $415,000, reflecting the highest annual median since 2007. (The year-to-date median sales price for all of Loudoun County is also the highest in four years at $375,500.) Four homes closed in Waterford in June that ranged in price from $749,000 to $1,065,000 resulting in a monthly median sales price of $935,000 and a year-to-date median of$775,000 – clearly the area leader so far this year.
Year-to-date, 37 percent of the sales in Western Loudoun were priced between $200,000 and $399,000, matching the share in this price range during 2010. However, the percentage of homes sold at prices between $600,000 and $799,999 was 16 percent in 2011; it was only 13 percent in 2010.
Typically, homes in Western Loudoun are on the market longer than those in other areas of the county. For example, the average days on market in Western Loudoun during June 2011 amounted to 115 days, down from a revised 163 days in May and 107 days last June. By contrast, homes sold in only 41 days on average in Eastern Loudoun during June while the average was just 57 days in Leesburg. Since January 2010, the lowest average in Western Loudoun occurred last July (60 days) and the highest was in January 2010 (235 days). While 42 percent of the June closings were under contract within 30 days of listing, 10 percent took a year or longer to sell.
Like sales totals, the days on market indicator varies significantly by individual market. Middleburg and Purcellville tied for the lowest average with 51 days while the June average in Waterford was 248 days.
The average close price to original list price ratio may reflect two things: sellers’ ability to accurately price their homes to match market conditions and/or their willingness to negotiate price. The ratio increased significantly in June to 94.4 percent from a revised 86.6 percent in May. Western Loudoun normally has the lowest close price to original list price ratio; it was 97.0 percent in Eastern Loudoun and 96.8 percent in Leesburg last month. Here in the west, the lowest ratio occurred in Waterford (86.9 percent) and the highest was found in Hamilton (98.4 percent).
In June, four townhouses sold in Western Loudoun at an average price of $235,000. The average price for the 55 detached homes sold last month was $511,980. Condominiums are not a factor in Western Loudoun.
The year-to-date share of short sales and foreclosures (24.5 percent distressed sales) in 2011 is the product of two months below 19 percent (April and June). Compare that to this time last year when theyear-to-date share of distressed sales was 34.1 percent. Middleburg and Waterford have had only one distressed sale each so far this year explaining their low shares while the percentage exceeds 22 percent in the other local areas.
The month’s supply of inventory is also considerably higher in Western Loudoun than elsewhere in the county. As of July 7th, there was a 6.4 month’s supply of available inventory in Western Loudoun. While it is high, there was improvement; the month’s supply of inventory exceeded 8 months from January through May. Compare 6.4 months of supply to 2.1 months in Eastern Loudoun during June and 2.9 months in Leesburg. Middleburg had the highest available inventory at 21 months and Round Hill had the lowest at 3.1 months in June.
Spotlight on Purcellville
Purcellville is having a good year compared to its recent history. It typically has the highest sales volume in Western Loudoun and has posted 101 sales so far this year. By comparison, at the end of June 2010, Purcellville had only 95 total sales and at the same time in 2009, sales only totaled 82 units. Close prices in Purcellville ranged from $139,500 to $2,250,000 this year. Of the 101 2011 sales, 46 percent were priced between $400,000 and $599,000 and 30 percent were priced between $200,000 and $399,999. Four homes sold at prices exceeding $1,000,000 (three more than in Middleburg!). The median sales price in 2011 was $425,000 as of June 30th, +6 percent over the 2010 annual median. The June median was $458,000, 4 percent higher than the May median and 12 percent higher than the June 2010 median. Finally, about 28 percent of the sold homes this year were distressed.
Western Loudoun is having a banner year compared to Loudoun County as a whole. 2011 Sales have not suffered here in comparison to 2010 sales as they were expected to do in the absence of the First Time Buyer’s Credit this year. If historical trends hold though, sales will decline from 59 units beginning in July through the rest of the year. However, I predict we will end the year ahead of 2010 totals. Additionally, median sales prices have increased 7.5 percent since January, clearly indicating a healthy market.
Rosemary deButts, Realtor, has lived in Purcellville for almost twenty years and is associated with Atoka Properties, currently located near Bloom. She has the Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource certification and is a Member,
Institute of Residential Marketing. Rosemary earned her degree in Economics from Randolph-Macon Woman’s College and her MBA from Old Dominion University. She and her husband, Jimmy (a lifelong resident of Western Loudoun), have seven children, six of whom are Loudoun Valley High School alums. For more information on the Western Loudoun housing market and guidance in buying or selling a home, contact Rosemary today (firstname.lastname@example.org; 540-454-6792; http://www.housinganalyst.net).