17317 Pickwick Drive, Purcellville


Subdivision Analysis: Villages of Purcellville 2011 09 15

Prices on the Rise

Last month there were no active listings in the Villages of Purcellville and there were three homes with pending contracts.  None of those three have settled yet (two are short sales) and their average list price is $318,267.  Whew, that’s low.  The good news though is that three new listings have entered the market with an average list price of $404,000 (none are distressed sales).  It seems that the community had to work through its short sales and now the market is back to a normal level.

There has been no change in the number of closings in Village of Purcellville since August (seven year-to-date closings).  The year-to-date median sold price is $349,000, down 11 percent from the 2010 median.  Sellers in 2011 had more modest expectations than in 2010; original list prices more accurately matched market conditions as seen in a much lower average price decrease.  But, seller contributions increased 43 percent to an average of about $5,000.  The time it takes to sell a home did improve though from an average of 99 days in 2010 to just 50 days through August 31, 2011.

Please call me if now is the time for you to sell your home.  Prices are back!  Let’s take advantage of low supply and high demand.

Subdivision Analysis: Villages of Purcellville 2011 08 16

No Active Listings = No Competition!

There are no active listings in the Villages of Purcellville.  Three homes have pending contracts with an average list price of $318,267.  Two of the three are short sales and the average days on market was 187 days.

Three homes sold in the Villages in July to bring the year-to-date total up to seven closings.  One sold for $412,000 while the other two sold for $330,000 and $349,000.  The year-to-date median sold price is $349,000, down 11 percent from the 2010 median.  Sellers have clearly moderated their expectations; the average price decrease has escalated dramatically this year compared to last.  Compounding the issue, seller contributions have increased 43 percent to an average of about $5,000.  The time it takes to sell a home did improve though from an average of 99 days in 2010 to just 50 days through July 31, 2011.

Please call me if now is the time for you to sell your home.  Be the only option for folks looking for the small town charm of Purcellville and the convenience of your highly desirable neighborhood.

Active Listings by Type 2011 06

Distressed Listings on the Decline

Comparing active listings in January to those in June 2011 by type we see that the total number of active listings increased by 32 percent.  Over the same period, the actual number of listings for standard (non-distressed) sales also increased 44 percent.  However, the number of bank-owned listings declined from January to June by 27 percent.  Total short sale listings also declined by 16 percent.

In January, there were 216 active distressed listings for a 19 percent share of the total.  With only 175 distressed listings on the market (11 percent of total active listings) in June, it appears that Loudoun County has made significant strides in working through its supply of distressed homes foretelling a stronger housing market in the months to come.



Subdivision Analysis: Villages of Purcellville 2011 07 25

Prices Vary Widely

Six homes have now sold this year in the Villages of Purcellville at close prices ranging from $330,000 to $412,000.  One of the two sales so far in July had a close price that was $5,000 higher than its asking price and the other was the second home to sell this year at a price in excess of $400,000.  The median was unchanged from my June analysis ($339,000) and it is 13.5 percent lower than the 2010 median.  However, the average days on market indicator continued its stark improvement; it declined to 55 days from 68 in June and is 44 percent lower than the 2010 average.  The close price to original list price ratio also improved; it increased from 94.6 percent in June and from 95.2 percent in 2010 to 96 percent in July.  The average seller subsidy declined 8 percent from June but is 19 percent higher than the average in 2010. One third of the 2011 sales in the Villages have been short sales while none of the nine sales in 2010 were distressed.

There is only one active listing in the neighborhood at this point. A standard sale, it has been on the market for 145 days at an asking price of $399,900.  Two of the three homes with pending contracts are short sales; that explains the unusually low list prices of $259,900 and $295,000.  All three were on the market an average of 142 days before receiving a contract.

With the extremely low list prices for the two pending short sale listings, the 2011 median and average close prices in the Villages will decline.  The good news though is that there are no active short sale listings in the neighborhood at this point suggesting prices will rebound in the Fall.

If now is the time for you to move, I would be honored to help you sell your home and/or answer any questions you may have about the real estate market here in Loudoun County.

Look for my new column in The Purcellville Gazette:  “The Dirt on the Market”

Loudoun County Housing Update: 2011 06

Existing Homes Sales Strong in June

The existing home market in Loudoun County had a good June.  While unable to beat total sales in June 2010, the 553 preliminary sales represented a 31 percent gain over May and outpaced both June 2009 and June 2008.  The table below illustrates the total sales activity and median sales prices from January to June in the last six years.  Even though June had a strong sales rally, the year-to-date totals are still the lowest in at least six years.  By contrast, the 2011 median sales price in Loudoun County continues to advance, reaching the highest point since 2007.






Of the 2,287 units sold in 2011 to date, the largest share was priced between $200,000 and $399,999 (44 percent).  During May and June however, nineteen homes priced above $1,000,000 were sold (10 in May and 9 in June) – this is unprecedented in recent history.  High priced homes contributed to the $410,000 June median sales price representing a 5 percent increase over May 2011 and June 2010 as well.  Median prices advanced throughout the county.  Eastern Loudoun posted a median of $388,450 in June, up from the revised May median of $360,549.  In Leesburg, the median increased from $410,000 in May to $420,000 in June.  Western Loudoun, which typically posts the highest median sales price, was $440,000 in June, up from $435,000 in May.

As shown on the following graph and for the fifth consecutive month, the share of distressed sales (short sales and bank owned properties) declined in Loudoun County during June to reach the lowest point since the multiple listing service began requiring these designations in early 2009.  There were 78 short sales and 35 foreclosures among the preliminary 553 sales in June (20 percent).  Compare that to 28 percent in May and 30 percent last June.  In both Leesburg and Western Loudoun the share fell below 20 percent and in the historically troubled Eastern Loudoun portion of the county, the share has declined steadily over the last five consecutive months from 44.8 percent in January to 21.3 percent in June.

The average days on market indicator continued to tumble in June reaching the lowest point (53 days) since September 2010.  With a dearth of active listings (almost 200 fewer than at this time last year), the month’s supply of available inventory was only 2.8 months in June.  The market is onsidered to be in equilibrium (enough supply to meet demand) when the available inventory is four to five months.   The June inventory level indicates that Loudoun is currently significantly undersupplied.  This is especially evident in Eastern Loudoun with only a 2.1 month’s supply.  Leesburg is dangerously low as well at 2.9 months.  Western Loudoun posted its lowest inventory level this year in June at 6.4 months.

Representing 59 percent of total sales in June, 328 detached homes sold at an average close price of $543,936.  Townhomes accounted for 36 percent of all sales with an average close price of $314,828 and the average close price was $188,661 for the 28 condominiums (5 percent) that sold last month.

Purcellville based real estate consultant Rosemary deButts summarized, “Total sales were unexpectedly robust in June but were still not strong enough to make up for the slow sales plaguing Loudoun during most of 2011.  However, Loudoun’s supply deficiency and declining distressed sales have contributed to an ever-improving median sales price.”###

FOR MORE DETAIL, SEE Loudoun County Housing Analysis 2011 06

Subdivision Analysis: Potomac Station 2011 07 06


Potomac Station Homes Selling at Faster Pace than Last Year

Detached Homes

(Leesburg,VA) – Twenty-five detached homes have sold in Potomac Station so far this year. Three of them were short sales and none were bank owned homes (12 percent shareof distressed sales vs. 19 percent in 2010). The annualized pace suggests roughly 60 homes will sell this year, 18 more than last year (+43 percent).  This is remarkable since the First Time Buyer’s Credit is no longer offered like it was in the first half of 2010.   The year-to-date median sales price for detached homes in Potomac Station was $465,000 (as of May 31st).  These homes were originally priced 6 percent
higher than the homes sold last year but were eventually discounted an average of $31,000 before they were sold.  The final result was an average close price not much different than it was in 2010.  However, the average seller subsidy declined 44 percent compared to 2010 to $3,100 or so, which is a positive indicator.  On the other hand though, the average number of days to sell increased 86 percent from 42 days in 2010 to 78 in 2011.

As of July 6, 2011, there were nine active listings and five pending sales in Potomac Station.  Only one of the active listings and two of the pending sales were distressed, all short sales.  The active listings have been on the market an average of 90 days and the pending sales were on the market 72 days, on average.  The current list price is roughly $516,000 for both the active listings and pending sales (+3 percent vs. 2011 average list price at sale).


Confounding expectations like the detached homes, three townhouses sold in Potomac Station per month through May 31st (on average) and at this pace will exceed 2010 totals by four units this year (+12 percent).  The year-to-date median sales price ($280,000) though was 8 percent behind the median in 2010.  Original list prices and average close prices were 5 percent behind those in 2010 but the average seller subsidy declined by 24 percent.  The lower prices apparently contributed to quicker sales, the average days on market in 2011 is only 27 days compared to
37 days in 2010 (-27 percent).   The share of distressed sales (bank owned homes and short sales) though was consistent from 2010 to 2011 at about 60 percent.


Seven townhomes in Potomac Station have pending contracts as of July 6th.  They were on the market an average of 34 days, have an average current list price of $304,239 and 57 percent of them are short sales (no bank owned properties).  The nine active listings have been on the market for an average of 35 days, have an average current list price of $330,644 (14 percent higher than the 2011 average list price at sale), and only 33 percent are distressed.  Interestingly, two active listings have had price increases since entering the market.

If you’d like to know what’s going on in your subdivision, call Rosemary deButts at Atoka Properties (540/338-7770, x301).