Metro DC Housing Market Analysis: 2011 07

Prince George’s County Continues to Struggle

August 9, 2011

(Washington, DC) – Prince George’s County is one of the components of the Metropolitan Washington, DC region (which also includes Montgomery County in Maryland, Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William counties in Virginia and the cities of Alexandria, Falls Church, Fairfax, Manassas and Manassas Park in Virginia and Washington, DC).  Since 2006, Prince George’s has generated 14 percent of the region’s total existing home sales volume.  Even though it has always been known as an affordable alternative to the more costly DC suburbs, Prince George’s County is an anomaly in this region; its housing market is in a steep and steady decline.

Consider the fact that the entire metro DC region has suffered a 21 percent decline in its year-to-date median sales price (January through July each year) since 2006. Bad enough, to be sure, but the comparable decline in Prince George’s County is a whopping 50 percent and still falling.  While the year-to-date median sales price has seen modest increases throughout the metro area in 2010 and 2011, Prince George’s County has had six consecutive years of median price decreases.

  • Metro DC Jan-Jul 2006 MSP = $415,000;  Metro DC Jan-Jul 2011 MSP = $330,000
  • PGC Jan-Jul 2006 MSP = $320,000; PGC Jan-Jul 2011 MSP = $160,000

 

So far this year, the median sales price in Prince George’s County has declined 7 percent whereas the median has increased 18 percent for the entire region and while the metro area had three decreases in the last seven months, Prince George’s has had five.

  • Metro DC Jan 2011 MSP = $299,900; Jul 2011 = $355,000
  • PGC Jan 2011 MSP = $171,900; Jul 2011 = $160,000

Compare the July average days on market in the metro DC area of 64 days to the comparable average in Prince George’s County – 104 days.  The average across the region declined 19 percent from January to July 2011 while it increased 17 percent in Prince George’s County.

  • Metro DC Avg Days on Market Jan 2011 = 79 days; Jul 2011 = 64 days
  • PGC Avg Days on Market Jan 2011 = 89 days; July 2011 = 104 days
  • Metro DC YTD Avg Days on Market 2011 = 72 days
  • PGC YTD Avg Days on Market 2011 = 98 days

The year-to-date average close price to original list price ratio in the metro DC area was 94.2 percent (as of July 31st) with five consecutive months above 94 percent.  In Prince George’s County, the year-to-date average is 89.3 percent and it’s had five consecutive months below 90 percent.

Another troubling aspect of the Prince George’s County market is its share of distressed sales (short sales and bank-owned properties).  The ratio is trending down but it is still strikingly high.  Roughly 23 percent of metro DC’s sales in July 2011 were distressed.  About 57 percent of Prince George’s sales were distressed in July.  Through the end of July, the 2011 average share of distressed sales in the metro area was 32 percent; it was 64 percent in Prince George’s County.  Further, for the last two consecutive months the metro DC share was less than 25 percent; it was above 55 percent in Prince George’s County since May 2010.

By contrast, the other component jurisdictions and realtor associations in the metro DC area have all seen year-to-date median sales price increases in 2011 compared to 2010; the 2011 average days on market is below 80 days elsewhere in the region; the 2011 average close price to original list price ratio exceeds 93 percent everywhere but Prince George’s County; and the 2011 average share of distressed sales exclusive of Prince George’s ranges from 15 percent in the District of Columbia to 43 percent in the Prince William realtor association (PWAR).

For more detail, please see Metro Dc Housing Analysis 2011 07


Western Loudoun County Analysis: 2011 07

Record Breaking Home Sales in July

According to the Metropolitan Regional Information Service (MRIS), the 67 home sales during July  in the Western Loudoun area (consisting of Middleburg, Purcellville, Round Hill, Hamilton, Lovettsville and Waterford) increased 12 percent from June and reached its highest monthly level in at least four years.  In fact, 2011 sales through July have outpaced total sales from January to July 2010 by 11 percent and beat the 2009 total through July by 23 percent.  In a typical year, the highest monthly sales in Western Loudoun are posted in June or July so we can expect monthly sales to decline through the rest of the year.

By contrast, home sales declined from 574 units in June to 452 in July for the entire county (-23 percent).

The table below lists July sales by area. Purcellville regained its dominance by posting 39 percent of the total sales last month in Western Loudoun in addition to a 53 percent increase over June and an 86 percent increase over last July.  Middleburg’s five sales in July represented a 400 percent increase over the one sale it had last July.

Although Western Loudoun posted stellar home sales in July, the median sales price took a huge hit.   The  median in both May and June was $435,000 in Western Loudoun.  In July, it dropped 23 percent and $100,000 to $335,000.  A whopping 51 percent of the increased number of sales in July were priced between $200,000 and $399,999 and only one home sold at a price higher than $1,000,000.  Compare that to June when only 33 percent of sales were priced in the $200,000 to $399,999 range and 3 homes sold for more than $1,000,000.   The good news though is that the year-to-date median sales price only decreased $5,000 from June to $410,000 which is equal to the 2010 median.  The median sales price more than doubled last month in Middleburg, the only Western Loudoun area to see a month-over-month increase.  Although not shown above and interestingly, the year-to-date median sales price in Waterford is $749,000 while it is only $550,000 in Middleburg.

Typically,  homes in Western Loudoun are on the market longer than those in other areas of the  county.  For example, the average days on market in Western Loudoun during July 2011 amounted to 87 days, down from a revised  114 days in June and 60 days last July. By contrast, homes sold in only 41 days on average in Eastern Loudoun during July  while the average was just 61 days in Leesburg.  Since January 2010, the lowest  average in Western Loudoun occurred last July (60 days) and the highest was in January 2010 (235 days).

Thirty homes (45 percent) sold in 30 days or less last month with an average close price of $350,480.  Compare that to 52 percent across the entire county with an average close price of $401,527.  There were three closings in Western Loudoun during July that took longer than a year to sell; the average close price of these units was $786,000.  They combined with three others in Eastern Loudoun and Leesburg to bring the county total to six units during July that were on the market over a year; the average close price of all six was $713,750.

Like sales totals, the days on market indicator varies significantly by individual market.  Lovettsville had the lowest July average with 43 days while the average in Middleburg was 208 days (one of the five was on the market 508 days).

The average close price to original list price ratio may reflect two things: sellers’ ability to accurately price their homes to match market conditions and/or their  willingness to negotiate price.  The ratio decreased in July to 91.9 percent from a revised 94.9 percent in June.  Western Loudoun normally has the lowest close price to original list price ratio; it was 96.5 percent in Eastern Loudoun and 94.8 percent in Leesburg last month.  Here in the west, the lowest ratio occurred in Hamilton (86.0 percent) and the highest was found in Waterford (94.2 percent).

In June, eight townhouses sold in Western Loudoun at an average price of $209,113.  The average price for the 59 detached homes sold last month was $426,211. Condominiums are not a factor in Western Loudoun.

The year-to-date share of short sales and foreclosures (24.6 percent distressed sales) in 2011 is the result of five consecutive months of declines from February to June.  Compare that 24.6 percent to this time last year when the year-to-date share of distressed sales was 34.9 percent.   Middleburg and Waterford have had only one distressed sale each so far this year explaining their low shares while the percentage exceeds 23 percent in the other local areas.

Even though the month’s supply of inventory reached its lowest point this year in July at 5.8 months, it is considerably higher in Western Loudoun than elsewhere in the county.  Note that the months of supply in Eastern Loudoun was 2.7 months during July and it was 4.0 months in Leesburg.  West of Leesburg, Waterford had the highest available inventory at 18.5 months and Round Hill had the lowest at 4.1 months of supply in July.

Spotlight on Round Hill

Through the end of July, 69 homes sold in Round Hill this year representing 21 percent of the Western Loudoun total.  That’s an average of about 10 homes per month which matches the 2010 pace.  The year-to-date median sales price was $370,000 at the end of July, -1 percent from the 2010 median of $373,000.   About 51 percent of Round Hill’s 2011 sales were priced between $200,000 and $399,999, another 25 percent were in the $400,000 to $599,999 range.  The average days on market in Round Hill was 115 days in June; it declined to 86 days in July.   The close price to original list price ratio was 93.9 percent in July, a far cry from 64.3 percent in February.  So far this year, 30 percent of Round Hill sales were distressed (one of the highest ratios in Western Loudoun) but the month’s supply of inventory, at only 4.1 months, is the lowest in the west and suggests it may be on the verge of being undersupplied.

Western Loudoun had a shocking number of sales in July, posting the highest monthly sales figure in years, something the county as a whole cannot claim.  However, the dramatic decline in the median sales price is troubling and hopefully a one-month anomoly.

Rosemary deButts, Realtor, is associated with Atoka Properties located in historic Purcellville. She has the Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource certification and is a Member, Institute of Residential Marketing. Rosemary earned her degree in Economics from Randolph-Macon Woman’s College and her MBA from Old Dominion University.  For more information on the Western Loudoun housing market and guidance in buying or selling a home, contact Rosemary today (rosemary@atokaproperties.com; 540-454-6792; http://www.housinganalyst.net).                        


Old Dominion Valley Subdivision Analysis

Significant Improvement in 2011

In all of 2010, only two homes sold in Purcellville’s Old Dominion Valley neighborhood.  So far in 2011, four homes have changed hands.  Even more important though is that the year-to-date median sales price in Old Dominion Valley is $428,000, $48,000 and 13 percent higher than the 2010 median of $380,000.  Last year, list prices were reduced an average of 3.5 percent ($14,500) before receiving a contract; this year the average price decrease is only $2,275 or .5 percent (an 84 percent drop from last year).  Average seller contributions have declined 16 percent this year to $6,750.  The average time to sell dropped from 113 days in 2010 to 39 days in 2011.  One of the two sales last year was a bank-owned property and the other was a standard (non-distressed) sale.

There were only two active listings in Old Dominion Valley as of August 2nd.  The current average list price is very low, only $390,300.  That’s because one of the active listings is a bank-owned property offered at $370,700.  The remaining standard active listing has an asking price of $409,900.   They have been on the market an average of 93 days.

The one pending sale is a short sale that had a contract in just fourteen days at a list price of $419,900.

If now is the time for you to move, I would be honored to help you sell your home and/or answer any questions you may have about the real estate market here in Loudoun County.

Look for my new column in The Purcellville Gazette:  “The Dirt on the Market”


Subdivision Analysis: Villages of Purcellville 2011 07 25

Prices Vary Widely

Six homes have now sold this year in the Villages of Purcellville at close prices ranging from $330,000 to $412,000.  One of the two sales so far in July had a close price that was $5,000 higher than its asking price and the other was the second home to sell this year at a price in excess of $400,000.  The median was unchanged from my June analysis ($339,000) and it is 13.5 percent lower than the 2010 median.  However, the average days on market indicator continued its stark improvement; it declined to 55 days from 68 in June and is 44 percent lower than the 2010 average.  The close price to original list price ratio also improved; it increased from 94.6 percent in June and from 95.2 percent in 2010 to 96 percent in July.  The average seller subsidy declined 8 percent from June but is 19 percent higher than the average in 2010. One third of the 2011 sales in the Villages have been short sales while none of the nine sales in 2010 were distressed.

There is only one active listing in the neighborhood at this point. A standard sale, it has been on the market for 145 days at an asking price of $399,900.  Two of the three homes with pending contracts are short sales; that explains the unusually low list prices of $259,900 and $295,000.  All three were on the market an average of 142 days before receiving a contract.

With the extremely low list prices for the two pending short sale listings, the 2011 median and average close prices in the Villages will decline.  The good news though is that there are no active short sale listings in the neighborhood at this point suggesting prices will rebound in the Fall.

If now is the time for you to move, I would be honored to help you sell your home and/or answer any questions you may have about the real estate market here in Loudoun County.

Look for my new column in The Purcellville Gazette:  “The Dirt on the Market”


Western Loudoun County Analysis: 2011 06


Western Loudoun Sales and Prices Strong in June

According to the Metropolitan Regional Information Service (MRIS) and as of June 30, 2011, the year-to-date preliminary existing home sales (257 units) in the Western Loudoun area (consisting of Middleburg, Purcellville, Round Hill, Hamilton, Lovettsville and Waterford) exceeded the year-to-date total at this time in 2010 by four units and by 43 units over 2009.  The highest monthly sales are typically recorded in June in this highly cyclical industry and June did not disappoint in Western Loudoun.  59 homes closed during June in Western Loudoun, up from a revised 46 in May and 57 during June 2010.  This was the highest monthly total since at least January 2009. For the sake of comparison, the year-to-date sales totals in all of Loudoun County are still the lowest in at least six years.

The table below lists June sales by area. Sales in Round Hill outpaced Purcellville for the first time since March of 2009, doubling the number of sales there during May.  Lovettsville posted a huge monthly gain, jumping from 3 sales in May to 10 in June.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As shown above, the June median sales price in the Western Loudoun area increased 1 percent to $440,000 from $435,000 in May. At this time last year, the median was only $415,000 (+6 percent).  June’s increase boosted the year-to-date median to $415,000, reflecting the highest annual median since 2007.  (The year-to-date median sales price for all of Loudoun County is also the highest in four years at $375,500.) Four homes closed in Waterford in June that ranged in price from $749,000 to $1,065,000 resulting in a monthly median sales price of $935,000 and a year-to-date median of$775,000 – clearly the area leader so far this year.

Year-to-date, 37 percent of the sales in Western Loudoun were priced between $200,000 and $399,000, matching the share in this price range during 2010.  However, the percentage of homes sold at prices between $600,000 and $799,999 was 16 percent in 2011; it was only 13 percent in 2010.

Typically,  homes in Western Loudoun are on the market longer than those in other areas of the  county.  For example, the average days on market in Western Loudoun during June 2011 amounted to 115 days, down from a revised  163 days in May and 107 days last June. By contrast, homes sold in only 41 days on average in Eastern Loudoun during June while the average was just 57 days in Leesburg.  Since January 2010, the lowest  average in Western Loudoun occurred last July (60 days) and the highest was in January 2010 (235 days).  While 42 percent of the June closings were under contract within 30 days of listing, 10 percent took a year or longer to sell.

Like sales totals, the days on market indicator varies significantly by individual market.  Middleburg and Purcellville tied for the lowest average with 51 days while the June average in Waterford was 248 days.

The average close price to original list price ratio may reflect two things: sellers’ ability to accurately price their homes to match market conditions and/or their  willingness to negotiate price.  The ratio increased significantly in June to 94.4 percent from a revised 86.6 percent in May.  Western Loudoun normally has the lowest close price to original list price ratio; it was 97.0 percent in Eastern Loudoun and 96.8 percent in Leesburg last month.  Here in the west, the lowest ratio occurred in Waterford (86.9 percent) and the highest was found in Hamilton (98.4 percent).

In June, four townhouses sold in Western Loudoun at an average price of $235,000.  The average price for the 55 detached homes sold last month was $511,980. Condominiums are not a factor in Western Loudoun.

The year-to-date share of short sales and foreclosures (24.5 percent distressed sales) in 2011 is the product of two months below 19 percent (April and June).   Compare that to this time last year when theyear-to-date share of distressed sales was 34.1 percent.   Middleburg and Waterford have had only one distressed sale each so far this year explaining their low shares while the percentage exceeds 22 percent in the other local areas.

The month’s supply of inventory is also considerably higher in Western Loudoun than elsewhere in the county.  As of July 7th, there was a 6.4 month’s supply of available inventory in Western Loudoun.  While it is high, there was improvement; the month’s supply of inventory exceeded 8 months from January through May.  Compare 6.4 months of supply to 2.1 months in Eastern Loudoun during June and 2.9 months in Leesburg.  Middleburg had the highest available inventory at 21 months and Round Hill had the lowest at 3.1 months in June.

Spotlight on Purcellville

Purcellville is having a good year compared to its recent history.  It typically has the highest sales volume in Western Loudoun and has posted 101 sales so far this year.  By comparison, at the end of June 2010, Purcellville had only 95 total sales and at the same time in 2009, sales only totaled 82 units.  Close prices in Purcellville ranged from $139,500 to $2,250,000 this year.  Of the 101 2011 sales, 46 percent were priced between $400,000 and $599,000 and 30 percent were priced between $200,000 and $399,999.  Four homes sold at prices exceeding $1,000,000 (three more than in Middleburg!).  The median sales price in 2011 was $425,000 as of June 30th, +6 percent over the 2010 annual median.  The June median was $458,000, 4 percent higher than the May median and 12 percent higher than the June 2010 median.  Finally, about 28 percent of the sold homes this year were distressed.

Western Loudoun is having a banner year compared to Loudoun County as a whole.  2011 Sales have not suffered here in comparison to 2010 sales as they were expected to do in the absence of the First Time Buyer’s Credit this year.  If historical trends hold though, sales will decline from 59 units beginning in July through the rest of the year. However, I predict we will end the year ahead of 2010 totals.  Additionally, median sales prices have increased 7.5 percent since January, clearly indicating a healthy market.

Rosemary deButts, Realtor, has lived in Purcellville for almost twenty years and is associated with Atoka Properties, currently located near Bloom.  She has the Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource certification and is a Member,
Institute of Residential Marketing. Rosemary earned her degree in Economics from Randolph-Macon Woman’s College and her MBA from Old Dominion University.  She and her husband, Jimmy (a lifelong resident of Western Loudoun), have seven children, six of whom are Loudoun Valley High School alums.  For more information on the Western Loudoun housing market and guidance in buying or selling a home, contact Rosemary today (
rosemary@atokaproperties.com; 540-454-6792; http://www.housinganalyst.net).                        


Loudoun County Housing Update: 2011 06

Existing Homes Sales Strong in June

The existing home market in Loudoun County had a good June.  While unable to beat total sales in June 2010, the 553 preliminary sales represented a 31 percent gain over May and outpaced both June 2009 and June 2008.  The table below illustrates the total sales activity and median sales prices from January to June in the last six years.  Even though June had a strong sales rally, the year-to-date totals are still the lowest in at least six years.  By contrast, the 2011 median sales price in Loudoun County continues to advance, reaching the highest point since 2007.

 

 

 

 

 

Of the 2,287 units sold in 2011 to date, the largest share was priced between $200,000 and $399,999 (44 percent).  During May and June however, nineteen homes priced above $1,000,000 were sold (10 in May and 9 in June) – this is unprecedented in recent history.  High priced homes contributed to the $410,000 June median sales price representing a 5 percent increase over May 2011 and June 2010 as well.  Median prices advanced throughout the county.  Eastern Loudoun posted a median of $388,450 in June, up from the revised May median of $360,549.  In Leesburg, the median increased from $410,000 in May to $420,000 in June.  Western Loudoun, which typically posts the highest median sales price, was $440,000 in June, up from $435,000 in May.

As shown on the following graph and for the fifth consecutive month, the share of distressed sales (short sales and bank owned properties) declined in Loudoun County during June to reach the lowest point since the multiple listing service began requiring these designations in early 2009.  There were 78 short sales and 35 foreclosures among the preliminary 553 sales in June (20 percent).  Compare that to 28 percent in May and 30 percent last June.  In both Leesburg and Western Loudoun the share fell below 20 percent and in the historically troubled Eastern Loudoun portion of the county, the share has declined steadily over the last five consecutive months from 44.8 percent in January to 21.3 percent in June.

The average days on market indicator continued to tumble in June reaching the lowest point (53 days) since September 2010.  With a dearth of active listings (almost 200 fewer than at this time last year), the month’s supply of available inventory was only 2.8 months in June.  The market is onsidered to be in equilibrium (enough supply to meet demand) when the available inventory is four to five months.   The June inventory level indicates that Loudoun is currently significantly undersupplied.  This is especially evident in Eastern Loudoun with only a 2.1 month’s supply.  Leesburg is dangerously low as well at 2.9 months.  Western Loudoun posted its lowest inventory level this year in June at 6.4 months.

Representing 59 percent of total sales in June, 328 detached homes sold at an average close price of $543,936.  Townhomes accounted for 36 percent of all sales with an average close price of $314,828 and the average close price was $188,661 for the 28 condominiums (5 percent) that sold last month.

Purcellville based real estate consultant Rosemary deButts summarized, “Total sales were unexpectedly robust in June but were still not strong enough to make up for the slow sales plaguing Loudoun during most of 2011.  However, Loudoun’s supply deficiency and declining distressed sales have contributed to an ever-improving median sales price.”###

FOR MORE DETAIL, SEE Loudoun County Housing Analysis 2011 06


Subdivision Analysis: Potomac Station 2011 07 06

 

Potomac Station Homes Selling at Faster Pace than Last Year

Detached Homes

(Leesburg,VA) – Twenty-five detached homes have sold in Potomac Station so far this year. Three of them were short sales and none were bank owned homes (12 percent shareof distressed sales vs. 19 percent in 2010). The annualized pace suggests roughly 60 homes will sell this year, 18 more than last year (+43 percent).  This is remarkable since the First Time Buyer’s Credit is no longer offered like it was in the first half of 2010.   The year-to-date median sales price for detached homes in Potomac Station was $465,000 (as of May 31st).  These homes were originally priced 6 percent
higher than the homes sold last year but were eventually discounted an average of $31,000 before they were sold.  The final result was an average close price not much different than it was in 2010.  However, the average seller subsidy declined 44 percent compared to 2010 to $3,100 or so, which is a positive indicator.  On the other hand though, the average number of days to sell increased 86 percent from 42 days in 2010 to 78 in 2011.

As of July 6, 2011, there were nine active listings and five pending sales in Potomac Station.  Only one of the active listings and two of the pending sales were distressed, all short sales.  The active listings have been on the market an average of 90 days and the pending sales were on the market 72 days, on average.  The current list price is roughly $516,000 for both the active listings and pending sales (+3 percent vs. 2011 average list price at sale).

Townhouses

Confounding expectations like the detached homes, three townhouses sold in Potomac Station per month through May 31st (on average) and at this pace will exceed 2010 totals by four units this year (+12 percent).  The year-to-date median sales price ($280,000) though was 8 percent behind the median in 2010.  Original list prices and average close prices were 5 percent behind those in 2010 but the average seller subsidy declined by 24 percent.  The lower prices apparently contributed to quicker sales, the average days on market in 2011 is only 27 days compared to
37 days in 2010 (-27 percent).   The share of distressed sales (bank owned homes and short sales) though was consistent from 2010 to 2011 at about 60 percent.

 

Seven townhomes in Potomac Station have pending contracts as of July 6th.  They were on the market an average of 34 days, have an average current list price of $304,239 and 57 percent of them are short sales (no bank owned properties).  The nine active listings have been on the market for an average of 35 days, have an average current list price of $330,644 (14 percent higher than the 2011 average list price at sale), and only 33 percent are distressed.  Interestingly, two active listings have had price increases since entering the market.

If you’d like to know what’s going on in your subdivision, call Rosemary deButts at Atoka Properties (540/338-7770, x301). 

 

 

 

 

 


Subdivision Analysis: Hirst Farm 2011 07 05

As of May 31st, six homes have sold in Hirst Farm so far this year. Two of the six were short sales and two were bank owned properties (67 percent distressed). The annualized pace suggests roughly 14 homes will sell this year, 3 fewer than last year.   While still below the 2010 median, the year-to-date median sales price in Hirst Farm was up from $399,000 in April to $409,000 at the end of May (+3 percent).  The average seller subsidy is on the rise though in this community, up 44 percent from the average in 2010 and it has taken 20 percent longer to sell Hirst Farm homes this year compared to last.

As of July  6, 2011, there was only one pending sale in Hirst Farm and no active listings.  The pending sale is a short sale at a current list price of $369,900.  The home was on the market 38 days.

Hirst Farm is clearly a victim of when it was built and the ensuing meltdown of the real estate market.  I specialize in short sales and have a system to make the process as painless and quick as possible.  There is no competition at the moment…a good time to list and sell your home.   Please call me, I would be honored to help you sell your home and/or answer any questions you may have about the real estate market here in Loudoun County.

Don’t miss my monthly column on western Loudoun housing trends, “The Dirt on the Market”, in The Purcellville Gazette.


Subdivision Analysis: Villages of Purcellville 2011 05

As of June 13, 2011, there were three active listings in the Villages of Purcellville community.  One is a short sale that has been on the market for nearly a year; the price was reduced from $305,000 to $295,000 in late May.  The average list price for the other two homes on the market is $416,900 and they’ve been active for an average of 68 days.  Both of the pending sales are short sales.  The average list price is $292,450 and they were on the market an average of 54 days.


Four homes have closed so far this year – one in January, one in February and two in April.  One was a short sale with a close price of $390,000.  Two non-distressed homes sold for $339,000 and one sold for $409,000.  Therefore, the median sales price is $339,000 and the average close price is $369,250.  These homes were active for an average of 68 days.

If now is the time for you to move, I would be honored to help you sell your home and/or answer any questions you may have about the real estate market here in Loudoun County. 

Plus, I’ve moved to Atoka Properties in the Bloom Shopping Center.  Please take a moment to visit me while you’re running errands here in town. Let’s chat about your house.

Look for my new column in The Purcellville Gazette:  “The Dirt on the Market”


Fredericksburg Area Housing Analysis 2011 05

Fredericksburg Area Housing Market Analysis 2011 05

2011’s Home Sales Still Outpacing Low Point in 2008

(Fredericksburg,VA) – With the artificial demand stimulated by the First Time Buyer’s Credit last year, 2011 sales volume in the Fredericksburg area wasn’t expected to outperform 2010.  As predicted, total sales so far this year were 5 percent behind the first five months of 2010.  Somewhat surprising though may be that 2011 is also 6 percent slower than in the same period in 2009.  The recession hit the area hardest at this time of year in 2008 when total sales through May only amounted to 1,383 units.  At 1,588 units so far in 2011, the Fredericksburg region is currently outpacing dismal 2008 figures by 15 percent.

May sales volume totaled 361 units, up from 354 in April but down from the May 2010 total of 382 units.  Sales have failed to reach corresponding monthly totals in 2010 in all but one month this year.  Stafford led the area with 149 sold units while King George posted the lowest total at 17 units.

According to Loudoun-based real estate consultant Rosemary deButts, “Given the cyclical nature of the housing industry, sales at this time of year should be spiking.  To match 2010 year-to-date records, sales volume in June 2011 needs to be 617 units.  That is unlikely since the highest monthly sales volume in recent years was 549 units in June 2006.   However, if it could be done, 553 sales in June would match 2007 levels.”

The median sales price increased 1 percent in May to $196,000 from the revised $193,935 median in April.  At this time last year, the median sales price was $217,500 (-10 percent).  The median advanced on a month-over-month
basis everywhere but Caroline where it landed at $112,000, a value that was also 23 percent behind the May 2010 median.  Stafford posted the highest median at $232,380 followed by King George County at $227,000.  The year-to-date
median in the Fredericksburg region was $189,900 as of May 31st.  That is the lowest annual median in at least five years, 39 percent behind the 2007 median and 10 percent behind the 2010
median.

After peaking at 99 days in April, the average days on market indicator receded to 95 days in May.  The 2011 average was 90 days; compare that to 76 in 2010, 97 in 2009 and 130 in 2008.  King George had the highest average at 197
days in May.  The lowest average was in the city of Fredericksburg with 87 days.  Of the 361 sales in May, 137 units (38 percent) actually sold in 30 days or less but 8 units (2 percent) took at least a year to sell.

The close price to original list price ratio was 91.4 percent in May across the region.  That was an uptick from April’s 90.8 percent but a drop from last May’s 92.9 percent. Behaving like sales volume, this ratio has not reached or exceeded the corresponding value in 2010 in four of the last five months.

Roughly 87 percent of the sales (313 units) in the Fredericksburg area were detached homes with an average close price of $230,990.  Stafford posted the highest average price for detached homes at $279,699; the lowest average close price was in Caroline ($123,151).  Attached homes accounted for 12 percent of sales volume (12 units) with an average close price of $137,658.  Three condominiums sold in Stafford last month at an average price of $72,467.

The share of distressed sales (short sales and foreclosures) declined for the third consecutive month in the area.  After four months with a share greater than 50 percent of total sales, May’s 43.5 percent was the second consecutive month below 50 percent.  Caroline was the only county with a share of  distressed sales at or above 50 percent. Only 22 percent of the sales in the city of Fredericksburg were distressed in May.

Typically, a market is considered to be in equilibrium (enough supply to satisfy demand) when there is a four to five month’s supply of inventory.  The available inventory declined for the fourth straight month in the Fredericksburg area to 4.6 months from 4.7 in April.  In January the supply totaled 6.9 months’ worth.  The lowest available inventory, 3.5 months, was in Stafford suggesting it may be slightly undersupplied.  The highest inventory was in King George, 8.9 months.

Rosemary deButts further commented, “Since half the year is spent with sluggish sales volume, it is unlikely that 2011 will catch 2009 and 2010 sales volume but the market is in better shape than it was in 2008 .” ###